Ten years after the UK embarked on a rushed public vote that polarised the nation and triggered disorder, a advisory comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and voters drifted into Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two prominent writers from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly fraught and transformative referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the political architecture of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
New Title Aims to Stir Debate
The pair have examined the governmental, financial and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the issue with a series of public talks that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns all parties, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose results have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an highly split population where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the those successful are uncertain exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say this point is looming, and a group called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists downplay the prospect, leaving it unclear whether or when there could be a referendum.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements for and against unity has masked the shortage of informed dialogue, said McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the idea but the concrete planning which may surpass that to make it possible is mostly absent. Much has taken place in academia but scarcely any politicians or activists seek to involve themselves with even the basics. As an example, which kind of country would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, no writer advocates unification or the status quo. They writes two articles that seek impartiality in detailing the argument for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling economic and societal figures, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Debates encompass national emblems, taxes, medical care, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The objective is to inform and provoke discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there has not yet occurred a debate," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an acceptance of the notion that there may exist reasonable perspectives on each side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate report they support unification but oppose greater financial contributions or adopting a alternative symbol to acknowledge unionists' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin must work out what the proposal from pro-unification movements is other than just saying: 'We seek a united Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride believes a national vote in his lifetime is possible and that it might occur suddenly. "There might be just a reckless or a poor or a negligent government minister who declares: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid arguments, he stated. "One side will win in this matter and the other side will eventually be defeated but each side has got something to acquire from the opposing arguments."
Call for Wider Discussion
Westminster needed to engage with the debate, stated the analyst. "This involves your state. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish question."
